In previous editions of our intelligence and investigations update, we detailed ongoing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan following a marked rise in terrorist attacks committed in Pakistan by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as well as the Afghan Taliban's efforts to reintegrate into global trade networks.
In this edition, we continue to examine how these events are unfolding and focus on emerging stories within the region.
Pakistan's mass deportation of Afghan nationals
Since 1 April 2025, Pakistan has intensified its efforts to repatriate Afghan nationals, resulting in the expulsion of over 80,000 individuals. This initiative is part of the "Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan", which began in late 2023.
The Pakistani government has set a deadline of 30 April 2025 for undocumented Afghans to leave voluntarily, after which forced deportations will commence. Human rights organisations have criticised the move, highlighting the potential humanitarian crisis it may precipitate, especially given Afghanistan's fragile economic and security situation. Additionally, widespread concern had been raised about sending young women and girls back to Afghanistan, where their rights and freedoms have been systematically eroded by the Afghan Taliban since their return to power.
In response, the Taliban's acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, expressed "deep concern and sadness" over the deportations during a meeting with Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar in Kabul. Muttaqi urged Pakistan to prevent violations of Afghan migrants' rights and protect their property.
Russia's removal of the Taliban from its terrorist list
On 17 April 2025, the Russian Supreme Court officially removed the Taliban from its list of designated terrorist organisations, a status that had been in place since 2003.
The removal of the terrorist designation paves the way for formal diplomatic and economic engagement between Russia and the Taliban-led government, which has yet to be formally recognised by any world nation. Whilst Russia has yet to extend official recognition to the Taliban regime, this reclassification eliminates significant barriers to interaction. Russian officials have emphasised the need to engage with the Taliban to stabilise Afghanistan and address shared security concerns, particularly the threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) who were responsible for a terrorist attack near Moscow in 2024 which resulted in over 130 fatalities.
Economically, Russia is almost certainly exploring opportunities to integrate Afghanistan into regional infrastructure and trade initiatives. The Taliban's control over Afghanistan's strategic location offers potential for transit routes connecting Russia to South and Southeast Asia, and with other regional powers such as China already moving in to secure Afghanistan's resources in exchange for development aid, it was only a matter of time before Russia did the same.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk has announced plans to develop logistical and transportation projects that could link Russian exports to markets in India and Pakistan via Afghan territory; likely the leading factor behind the move.
The Taliban has welcomed Russia's decision, viewing it as a significant step towards international legitimacy. Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi expressed appreciation for the move, highlighting its potential to enhance political and economic cooperation.
This development reflects a broader regional trend, with two additional Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) countries, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, having previously removed the Taliban from their respective terrorist lists. As Russia and its aligned states adjust their policies, the Taliban's goal of international recognition gains momentum, in spite of an international freeze on their sovereign funds and ongoing concerns regarding a 'gender apartheid', which has seen girls over the age of 12 sidelined from education and banned from showing their faces outside their homes.
Russia's delisting of the Taliban signifies a strategic recalibration aimed at expanding influence in Central Asia and, perhaps, the fostering of a much-needed ally amongst two of the world's most sanctioned pariah states. While full diplomatic recognition remains pending, the groundwork is being laid for deeper engagement between Moscow and Kabul.
Taliban's crackdown on the Hezb-e Islami
Finally, we note that in a move to cement their power and control over the 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan', the Afghan Taliban have ordered the closure of all offices of Hezb-e Islami, an opposition 'political party' and paramilitary group who were previously, although are no longer, a proscribed terrorist organisation in the UK and are still listed as such in Canada.
The directive, issued by the Ministry of Justice, and posted to the social media platform X.com, mandates the arrest of party staff and the confiscation of office equipment; further affirming the Taliban's stance against political pluralism, as it continues to suppress entities that challenge its authority.