State of the Market: Q1 2026

Tom Kain: "We have seen increased activity after the Autumn Budget last year. Our clients were understandably cautious about transacting with all the speculation prior to the Budget, but the result of which was quite muted and our buyers' confidence has returned. We are also seeing renewed interest in London this year as a safe and stable modern city to live in, against the backdrop of geo-political upheaval."

Richard Rogerson: "Prior to the war in Iran, there was a surprising 'business as usual' feel to the market, despite the obvious political uncertainty facing the UK. Q4 2025 was one of the busiest quarters in the last 20 years (at least at the £10m+ level), and Q1 has also been active. Transaction volumes (again at £10m+) remain slightly lower than last year, but we are aware of a number of transactions that were aiming to exchange before the end of March. As such, it may ultimately prove to be broadly in line with Q1 last year."

Simon Connell: "There has definitely been a post budget uptick in activity especially at the top end of the London market. The budget last year put a hold on any volume of transactions happening and as such there was a degree of pent-up demand. This has resulted in Q1 of 2026 being cautiously busy. I suspect though that this may be short lived given the Iran conflict and general low consumer confidence."

Jane Wood: "We did start to see an uptick in early January, but with the war in the Middle East, the past 2–3 weeks have been much quieter. We do hear (although no direct experience yet) of some buyers/renters relocating back to London from the Middle East."

Reme Nicole: "Prior to the events in the Middle East we had seen a huge uptick in activity compared to what we have experienced in previous years, particularly due to the stagnation experienced last year in the run up to the budgetit appeared people had received the reassurance and information they needed to be able to execute and finally make decisions which most definitely improved momentum and sentiment in the market."

Richard Rogerson: "The market is highly bifurcated. Best-in-class properties continue to trade, often competitively and often at record values (albeit this ebbs and flows with sentiment). However, where owners hold out for outlandish or unsupported pricing, even the best properties will sit on the market (well, off the market). The second tier of properties are effectively back at 2012 values, and once owners understand and accept this, those properties tend to trade. There is then a rump of compromised properties which I don't think trade at any level, buyers don't want to buy them or commit significant capital to trying to transform them (particularly evident at £20m+). In some areas there remains a standoff between seller expectations and buyer reality. Hampstead is an example of this".

Simon Connell: "I think vendors in certain geographical sections of the market are more price realistic than others. For instance, I would say that those selling in say Belgravia or Chelsea are more open to offers than those in Notting Hill and Holland Park. The market in SW3 and SW1 has been softer for longer and as such the vendors there are about 18 months ahead in terms of price expectations."

Jane Wood: "Many flats that we come across have asking prices that are lower than what the vendors paid for their flats originally. This issue is most acute in larger, recent developments. The vendors' willingness to accept lower offers very much depends on their own circumstances. This is very different from the house market, where there is less correction. Either way, top quality property has, relatively speaking, had less of a correction than the rest, or even some price appreciation."

Tom Kain: "London is not a homogenous market, so it depends on the price bracket and exact area, but in general sellers above £2m are realistic with their pricing. I would say this trend has continued since a year ago, rather than there being a major shift in sentiment and seller behaviour over the last 12 months.

Reme Nicole: "It would be untrue to say every seller is more realistic as we know the emotional attachment that comes with selling a home. But the sellers experiencing the most success, receiving the most interest and gaining the most traction are those that are aligned with the market and priced accurately but aggressively for action."

Simon Connell: "There has been good activity this year in Chelsea in the £3m–£10m range. There has also been a good amount of activity in markets such as Wandsworth, Balham, Southfields and Teddington. This has surprised me given how dependent on mortgages they are. Mortgage rates have been going up."

Richard Rogerson: "We focus on £5m+, with the majority of our activity currently at £10m+, so we cannot comment meaningfully on the wider London market. Activity at the higher values is stronger than might have been expected. The interest is mostly focused on houses in typical areas such as Holland Park, Notting Hill, Mayfair, Chelsea, Belgravia and Kensington. Mayfair still remains quiet in terms of activity (especially for high value apartments), with relatively low stock levels (at least good stock)."

Reme Nicole: "Notting Hill, Hampstead, Little Venice, Marylebone remain attractive for much of my buyers at the moment and generally needs-driven markets continue to prosper during sensitive times like this. I would say £2–5m is the market in which most traction is being generated and where I see most volume."

Tom Kain: "The family house market in areas like Fulham, Dulwich and Queens Park are active. In the higher end Prime Central London market, Marylebone and Mayfair are the areas most of interest to our HNW clients currently."

Jane Wood: "We cover central London, and the level of interest, in relative terms across all areas, is very much what it has always been."

Tom Kain: "It's a mixture of primary residence buyers looking in Prime Outer London and pied-à-terre buyers looking in Prime Central London. For primary residence buyers it is the need to find a long-term base for schooling and proximity to work. The most popular areas include those with an attractive local high street and access to a park. Pied-à-terre buyers are typically coming from overseas and want a London base for up to 3 months per year. Their motivation is wealth diversification, hedging against political uncertainty in their home country and the draw of London's cultural offerings."

Jane Wood: "We rarely see buy-to-let investors these days. But the rest of our buyers still seem equally split between their own primary residence and additional residence / pied-à-terre. One of the key trends, for us, in the past few years, has been the increase in buyers passing wealth to the next generation in the form of property."

Simon Connell: "They are mainly domiciled here with a big proportion of them being Brits. They are motivated to buy as their perception is that the market is soft and full of opportunity. This is true in certain areas but not all. In general they are looking for their full-time home (primary residence). The pied-à-terre market is more hit and miss but certainly not dead."

Reme Nicole: "We are witnessing many buyers downsizing. Much of that is due to the fact they're relocating or moving their primary base elsewhere but still wish to keep a smaller pied-à-terre in London. We then of course continue to have domestic needs-driven buyers focused on suburban family neighbourhood areas like Hampstead, St John's Wood, Little Venice, Chelsea who remain set on London and its position as their primary residence."

Richard Rogerson: Most of our clients are domestic or US buyers, with a smaller proportion of Europeans who are buying for very specific reasons. For our clients, this is primary residences.

Jane Wood: "Again, the war could turn out to be a turning point this year, in the sense that the more unstable the world is, the more there is a case for buying property in London, possibly partially compensating for the end of the non-dom regime."

Simon Connell: "Yes. I still have overseas clients wishing to park money in the Central London market. As the current political climate is illustrating, London is still a safe haven and a solid store of money. It continues to have a stable economy/government, with good schools, restaurants and nightlife. It is still a lot of fun. I think the current global turmoil will keep London in people's minds as a destination to live and invest. We could do with a little relaxing of certain tax laws though to really make a difference!"

Richard Rogerson: "Yes, international buyers remain active. The end of the non-dom regime was more impactful for those already resident in the UK than for new arrivals. For new arrivals, the FIG regime is actually really positive notwithstanding the very real visa hurdles. There is also a sense among some buyers that the current FIG/visa framework will evolve with a future change in government, making distinctions such as 4-year (income/gains) versus 9-year (IHT) feel less critical. For now, it remains too early to assess the impact the war in Iran may have on the London market".

Reme Nicole: "Due to the war in the Middle East we are seeing many families return to London, initially for high value rentals while they consider their options and watch how things play out; whether this will convert to purchases over the next 4–6 months will depend on what happens in the world moving forward. What we do know is that where many markets are extremely volatile in times like this, London remains a safe store of wealth.

Tom Kain: Yes, buyers are still attracted to London but many have adjusted their budget and the kind of property they are looking to buy with the tax changes. They are more concerned with finding value and lower holding costs than they were a few years ago.

Reme Nicole: Paris, Turkey, Italy, America and domestic buyers.

Simon Connell: South Africa, America, Middle East and China

Jane Wood: Switzerland, South Africa, France, Australia, USA and South America

Tom Kain: US and Canada, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland

Richard Rogerson: Primarily the US and Europe. That being said, domestic buyers remain our largest group.

Tom Kain: "Predominantly lifestyle choice but wealth diversification also a driver. Not many are expecting capital growth."

Simon Connell: "A combination of both. On the one hand they are looking to have a place to stay and enjoy when in town and on the other they want it to be a sensible store of capital."

Jane Wood: "Our clients always purchase a property with an eye on its investment opportunity."

Reme Nicole: "Lifestyle."

Richard Rogerson: "We only act for buyers buying homes.  As such we don't focus on pure investment properties. While clients do care about the market context, value and risk (and will interrogate all of these and wider due diligence), their overriding objective and sentiment is to find the right home."

Tom Kain: "Genuinely rare, best-in-class properties are selling for historically high prices, but it's low volume. There is generally lots of choice for prime and super-prime buyers and negotiating conditions are favourable. These buyers favour lateral apartments."

Richard Rogerson: "Describing the market as 'selectively strong' may be overstating it, but it is clearly bifurcated. Best-in-class properties continue to transact quietly and there is demand. Our data from last year (tracking all transactions over £10m) suggests the new build market accounts for c.25% of activity. Across both new build and period properties, houses continue to dominate, accounting for c.75% (and 80% above £20m). The new build pipeline has fallen sharply given the well-publicised planning and development landscape."

Simon Connell: "I think the London market continues to fragment. The best-in-class properties always perform well (and achieve amazing prices) whilst the rest have struggled and have to be priced realistically to gain traction. The very top end of the market has been strong, unsurprisingly in my opinion. Buyers are either looking for lateral flats or wide low-built houses. The new build market is struggling."

Reme Nicole: It is constantly changing; but it is soft. There is most definitely a market for best-in-class assets, turnkey assets and the most desirable locations particularly as we look at possible threat of rate increases, cost of materials increasing etc.

Jane Wood: Our clients tend to be interested more in period / boutique developments than large developments.

Richard Rogerson: "There has always been a shortage of best-in-class stock, at least for the last decade or more. Sourcing and accessing such properties is key to what we do, then it's about securing them often in competitive circumstances. How we source is down to our relationships, a lot of hard work and focusing on details. I am not going to disclose more!".

Tom Kain: "There is always a shortage of the very best-in-class at the top end. 73% of all the properties we purchased with clients over the last 12 months above £3m were off-market. We know which contacts to call to unearth these opportunities and we also make private approaches to owners. Our contact base and knowledge has been built over 20 years – we know Super Prime London as well as anyone."

Simon Connell: "There is always a shortage of the very best, but that is how it should be. A typical search at the top end of the market takes time and to an extent an element of fortuitous timing."

Reme Nicole: "When working for a buyer and sourcing properties with very specific requirements it is important to be proactive; whether that be looking more aggressively into data and using this data to support in negotiations, allowing buyers to acquire something that may have traditionally been out of their price bracket, or approaching vendors who are not yet on the market directly and opening the conversation as to whether they would be prepared to sell. The key here is to be proactive."

Jane Wood: There has always been a shortage of best-in-class stock.  These days even more so and there is less turnover these days for best-in-class property than there was a year ago. We source our property the way we have always done it, efficiently and discreetly.

Richard Rogerson: "No impact.  We should also call it a surcharge rather than a “mansion tax” as the latter plays into polarisation narratives!  At £10m+, it is not an issue that comes up and is not something that impacts value or liquidity. Most international buyers are used to some form of annual taxation on their properties. The key issue in the UK remains SDLT which at 19% at the top end is a very real and significant cost. I suspect, over time, that this surcharge will start a shift away from transactional taxation towards a more annualised tax, something that could actually be beneficial for market liquidity.  Certainly, the Conservative Party have committed to abolish SDLT."

Simon Connell: "I actually think it is generally the vendors who have had to swallow the extra costs. A buyer will factor in the SDLT for instance and adapt an offer accordingly. Overall, the associated costs when buying have had a cooling effect, but this has been the case since 2014."

Tom Kain: Buyers have adapted. Stamp duty is a one-off payment so it can be factored into the overall cost of buying. One can argue this tax is passed on to sellers, who in many cases are having to accept lower prices if they want to achieve a sale.

Jane Wood: We have not seen a 'chilling effect'. People who come to us with these requirements are generally prepared to pay the taxes. But of course, we do not often come across the potential buyers who are not prepared to pay these higher taxes."

Reme Nicole: "I have not seen it have any effect in the market, and it is considered to be nominal in comparison to the price of the property."

Richard Rogerson: "Period properties still account for the vast majority of the market, c.75% of the £10m+ market. Turnkey or newly refurbished properties remain the focus for buyers. They will consider cosmetic projects, but they still do not want to take on major projects (often referenced as anything structural). In time, buyers will need to become more open to projects, as turnkey supply is constrained, in part due to an absence of single-asset developers in recent years."

Simon Connell: "In general the sustainability drive hasn't, in my opinion, reached London properly. I haven't yet had a client driven by energy efficiency or sustainability. The planning laws continue to make these well-intentioned ideas difficult to actually implement. As a general rule, houses and flats in immaculate condition continue to be well sought after as buyers are reluctant to do major refurbishment projects especially given the significant costs to build."

Tom Kain: "The trend we have seen is for buyers preferring period properties in well-established locations, where better value can be found."

Reme Nicole: "Not particularly, but as cost of materials rise, especially with the war in the Middle East, turnkey, best-in-class properties remain most desirable."

Jane Wood: Large developments with unclear service charges tend to be less of interest.

Jane Wood: "It is difficult to say, some neighbourhoods have experienced potentially 'life-changing' developments, for example the Olympia development, and the local neighbourhoods may benefit from this, just like the areas around Kings Cross have done.

Simon Connell: "I suspect areas like Chelsea and Belgravia will do OK as they are looking like value when compared to, say, Notting Hill. The flight to quality, i.e. buying the best of the best, will continue."

Tom Kain: "I think Marylebone will continue to be a popular location for prime and super-prime buyers. In terms of developments, Chelsea Barracks have re-positioned the make-up of the next phase of homes to be delivered in the scheme, off the back of market research, so we may see more buyer interest there."

Reme Nicole: "Marylebone, Hampstead, Notting Hill and Bayswater."

Richard Rogerson: "I expect trends to remain broadly as they did last year, so a focus on best-in-class turnkey houses in the usual locations. In terms of new build, I expect the secondary market in a few best-in-class schemes to see increased demand and activity (but values there will be very sensitive to the quality of the unit and the scheme)."

Jane Wood: The war has brought a lot of uncertainty in the market.  But perhaps opportunities too, there may be an influx of renters and buyers from the Middle East. Time will tell.

Simon Connell: "The market is definitely full of opportunity with prices in certain cases trading at levels that I saw back in 2010/11. There are deals to be had, you just have to be brave and ignore the general lethargy that many are feeling."

Tom Kain: "I think demand will be broadly similar through the rest of 2026, meaning a steady flow, rather than a substantial surge of new buyers. In terms of opportunity, there is good choice on some very attractive new build flats in the £5m–£20m range at the moment. Due to changing planning policy and the restriction of new 200 sq. m. properties, there are none of these being built, so these will soon become rare assets."

Richard Rogerson: "In the current global environment, it is difficult to gauge how the year will progress. Prior to the war in Iran, I would have expected the market to track broadly in line with last year in terms of number of transactions. Geopolitical factors have now created significant uncertainty with both push and pull factors for our market. At the time of writing, I sense there are more pull factors for London as tax becomes a lesser consideration than safety and security. Even so, I would not expect dramatic shifts in either values or volumes. The bifurcation of the market means activity remains concentrated in a relatively narrow segment."

Reme Nicole: "It really does depend on the state of the world and quite frankly what happens in the US as this typically directly affects UK markets and global sentiment. But I would say that London pricing is extremely attractive right now, and buyers and investors should feel safe in the fact that they are buying at the bottom. In real terms, with inflation adjusted for, a buyer today has the same purchasing power as in 2006. I truly believe there has never been a better buying opportunity in the UK than right now and so should London have a place for you in the long run, there is no better time to invest in this city."